Bitcoin's price has historically tracked a long-term power law trendline — a curve that grows at a constant rate on a log-log time/price scale. This dashboard fits that trendline to real BTC price history from CoinGecko, then backtests trading strategies that buy when price dips below the trend and sell when it runs above it. The price / trend ratio below shows how stretched the current price is relative to the model: a ratio under the buy band signals BTC is cheap relative to trend, while a ratio over the sell band signals it's expensive.
| Strategy | Final value | Total return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Sharpe ratio | Buy & hold final | Buy & hold return | Alpha vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| meanrev | $2,778,144 | 27681.4% | 75.5% | -61.8% | 1.35 | $945,560 | 9355.6% | $+1,832,584 |
| dca | $915,819 | 9058.2% | 57.1% | -83.4% | 1.01 | $945,560 | 9355.6% | $-29,741 |
| momentum | $14,499 | 45.0% | 3.8% | -87.6% | 0.34 | $945,560 | 9355.6% | $-931,061 |